Trade Analysis
SPX500 – Is the US Market Doom? Part 2
To recap, last January 2019, I have mentioned that SPX500 has started a major correction. (refer to article: SPX500 – Is the US Market Doom?)
During that time, I have also mentioned that SPX500 has started the bear market and I was expecting an Elliot Wave Flat to unfold. Fast forward a year after that the EW Flat finally happened.
This is the beauty and advantage of using the Wave Principles in our chart analysis. We are way ahead before most traders can predict what the market will do.
So whats next?
I am expecting a market recovery soon where in we will have a bullish market for the next couple of years. Most of the time when many analyst will finally say that we have just entered a bear market that is the time when Elliot Wave will prove them wrong.
Why I am expecting this?
As I can see from the above chart the so called market correction we are experiencing right now is way smaller in size and in time duration compared to the 2001-2009 corrective structure. Also base on what I can see we are on wave 2 of that impulse wave so the next couple of years will be very bullish and market will continue moving higher. Anyway, this is just base on what I can presently see in the market. I may be wrong as well. Let’s see what will happen as the market continues to give us hint in the next days/months to come.
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EURUSD – Corrective Pattern Complete
I am expecting price to further move lower as the corrective pattern for the wave 2 structure seems to be complete and the lower end of the channel is also broken.
Corrective Wave 2 structure is a possible running flat.
EURUSD – Testing the Channel
EURUSD is now testing the lower end of the corrective channel. Price may bounce from here as the 5 wave impulse seems to be complete.
SPX500 – Is the US Market Doom?
Is the US Market Doom for a recession? This is a great question to be answered. I will be answering it base on Elliot Wave Perspective. I really like the wave principles because of its uncanny ability to see the future before it happens.
As early as August 2017, I was already mentioning that the Index is going to have a major correction soon. Approximate target is around 2500.
A year later September 2018, the index pick near 3000 as it was able to finally complete the sub 5 waves (shown in red numbers in chart below) of the wave 5.
Now, is this a major correction? How deep is this correction?
Yes, this is a major correction for its size is bigger compared to the other minor corrections. But I don’t think the correction is going to be deep.
The reason I don’t think the correction is going to be deep is because of the 3 wave drop from the top. Which corresponds to an ABC correction. Which can correspond to Wave A of an elliot wave FLAT pattern or the end of this major correction (Wave (2)). Depending on the structure of the Wave b of this possible FLAT pattern we will know the most likely direction of the market.
This Corrective Wave b of the FLAT pattern can be disguised as a classical double top pattern. Which will fail later as it completes the final Wave C leg of the pattern.
On the opposite scenario, if the wave c or the 2348 level is broken before the confirmation point of the FLAT correction then the INDEX is in deep trouble. Lets see what happens next in the days to come.
[CAVEAT]
EURUSD – Bearish Scenario Update
As I was reviewing the latest internal structure of the current pullback of this pair. It came to my conclusion that this pullback can turn out to be an impulsive wave downward. For me EURUSD is near a critical level right now. A break of this level may further push price downward.
Higher view of the bearish scenario.
[CAVEAT] 🙂
EURUSD – ABC Corrective Pattern Near Completion
Today’s article is a continuation of my yesterdays post: EURUSD – Possible Leading Diagonal of Wave A Completed.
Right now I am anticipating EURUSD will bottom soon. Then once I got a good confirmation only then I will start placing my long entries at a controlled risk. Also take note a break below area 1.1300 will negate this bullish scenario.
Trade this analysis at your own risk. Proper risk management is recommended all the time.
EURUSD – Possible Leading Diagonal of Wave A Completed
Yesterday I have mentioned about the ongoing consolidation or corrective pattern on EURUSD. Right now Wave A looks like it is already completed as a Leading Diagonal with Wave B presently ongoing. I am expective a sharp drop after this wave B to complete the final Wave C. This corrective pattern by the way can be of the form of either a Zig-Zag or a Flat.
A look at the daily timeframe, it can be seen that price is bouncing off our key level of support.
EURUSD on a Corrective Pullback
EURUSD just pulled back to the breakout point and Key Support Level.
I am seeing a possible consolidation pattern developing for now before the next rally. A break above 1.1570 may signal the next rally upward.
While a break below 1.1300 will negate my bullish scenario.
EURUSD Bullish Scenario
I posted the yesterday the possible bearish scenario for the EURUSD in my blog. Today here is the alternate bullish count of the pair.
Demystifying Current Internal Structure of EURUSD
Right now I am watching two possible scenarios for the EURUSD. The one that breaks first either of the two key levels will determine possible direction of this pair.
Price Action Waver 